A few thoughts on the possible cause of the crash of the Airbus A-320 at Sao Paulo, Brazil, July 17, 2007. (Comments made on July 21, 2007, to be modified as further information is obtained, primarily from flight date recorder and cockpit voice recorder.)

These thoughts may be modified once the information from the flight data recorder and cockpits recorder are released. But based upon the initial information, there is a good probability that the following matters resulted in the crash and deaths:

• The length of the runway is approximately 6400 feet, which is very short for the type of jet flown by the airlines. Under dry runway conditions, without any turbulence on the approach path, this runway length is marginal, and not desirable for repeated regular use by airlines.
   
• When the runway is wet, considerably more runway length is needed, just to meet the bare minimums of a dry runway. The runway was wet.
   
• The runway had not been grooved. But even with grooving, the shortness of the runway and the greater distance needed for stopping on wet runways, still would not have resulted in a safe operation.
   
• One engine reverser had been inoperative for a period of time. Engine reversers are most effective on wet runway conditions. It was gross error, gross poor judgment, for flight dispatch to allow the airliner to land on the short runway, while wet, without the engine reversers available. It was also poor judgment on the captain's part to have attempted a landing on the short, wet, runway, knowing he could not use reversers. (Although only one reverser was inoperative, using the reverser on the other engine could result in a directional control problem resulting in a crash. It was unsymmetrical reversing of a United Airlines DC-8 at Denver that resulted in loss of directional control upon landing, a crash, and the deaths of many passengers.)
   
• There are indications that turbulent and gusty conditions existed on approach. During such conditions, it is common to approach at a slightly higher approach speed, which then requires a longer distance to stop the aircraft. That would have compounded the other problems, being the short runway, the wet runway, and the absence of thrust reversers.
   
• There are indications, yet to be confirmed, that the landing speed was faster than normal. If that is correct, and it could have been due to either the turbulent gusty conditions on approach, and possibly compounded by poor airspeed control by the pilot making the landing. If correct, this would add still more to the problems of the short runway, the wet runway, the absence of thrust reversers.
   
• It is also possible, and the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder, will show if this is correct, that the pilots sought to take off again when it was obvious they could not stop by the end of the runway, and that this decision was made too late to gain enough speed to become airborne before reaching the end of the runway.
   
• On top of all these problems, there appears to be incompetence of the authorities responsible for aviation safety in Brazil.
   
• Warnings of the unsafe conditions were against shown before the crash when, on March 22, two planes skidded off the runway. One of them, a Boeing 737-400, overshot the runway in a heavy rain, stopping just short of a steep drop. Another skidded off the runway the day before the crash.
   
• With the rapid increase in airline travel worldwide, many pilots are put into the cockpit of jets that lack the experience and competency needed for the various factors encountered in airline operations.

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  Qualifications of Rodney Stich:
   

• Key inspector-investigator for the Federal Aviation Administrator, key hands-on inspector for the most senior program at United Airlines, and given the assignment to correct the conditions responsible for the worst series of airline disasters in the nation's history, at that time. Included in official duties were investigation of airline incidents and accidents.
   
• Airline captain in international operations for many years, prior to retiring.
   
• Naval Aviator during World War II, primarily as instructor in advanced PBY aircraft and Patrol Plane Commander in Liberators and Privateers. Aviation experience started in the U.S.. Navy in 1941, and continued for 60 years, until a heart problem halted his flying activities.
   
• Author of four editions of Unfriendly Skies, the first one published in 1978 and the most recent version being Unfriendly Skies: 20sth & 21st Centuries. The contents in that book reveals the underside of the deadly politics of air safety that no one talks about.
   
• Author of Blowback, 9/11, and Cover-Ups, revealing the behind-the-scene misconduct that made it easy for four groups of terrorists to hijack four airliners on 9/11.
   
• Guest and expert on over 3,000 radio and television shows since 1978.
   
• List of books, and free download of major segments, available.
  
• Further information, with pictures, at www.unfriendlyskies.com and at www.unfriendlyskies.com/tam_airlines_crash_sao_paulo_brazil.html.